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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 22/0628Z from Region 3492 (N18E36). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 595 km/s at 22/0209Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 22/0312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 21/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 211 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (23 Nov, 25 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Nov 190
  Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 190/190/185
  90 Day Mean        22 Nov 147

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  015/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Nov  022/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  011/012-007/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%20%20%

All times in UTC

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