Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 December 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 19/0304Z from Region 3528 (N08E01). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 835 km/s at 19/0311Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/2126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 208 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (22 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Dec 179
  Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec 180/178/178
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  016/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  010/012-007/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

All times in UTC

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