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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 12/0441Z from Region 3484 (S15W60). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (13 Nov, 14 Nov) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 12/0737Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3687 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
Class M45%45%20%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Nov 137
  Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        12 Nov 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Nov  017/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  012/015-008/008-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm35%20%20%

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