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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 16/1606Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 15/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Oct 144
  Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 145/145/150
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  011/012-010/012-013/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm05%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%45%50%

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