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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 11/1729Z from Region 3477 (S15W67). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 10/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4372 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (13 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Nov 142
  Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 145/140/130
  90 Day Mean        11 Nov 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Nov  016/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  025/038-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%15%
Minor storm35%15%05%
Major-severe storm20%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%35%20%

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