Viewing archive of Monday, 13 November 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 13/1331Z from Region 3484 (S15W76). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (14 Nov) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1205 km/s at 13/0241Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 13/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/1130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 592 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Nov, 16 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
Class M25%20%15%
Class X05%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Nov 134
  Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov 132/126/122
  90 Day Mean        13 Nov 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  014/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  010/010-010/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

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