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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 08/2307Z from Region 3511 (S22W45). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 09/1333Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Dec 128
  Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 128/125/120
  90 Day Mean        09 Dec 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Dec  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  005/005-011/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

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