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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 20/1709Z from Region 3341 (S15E58). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 19/2255Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/0914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/1151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (23 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
Class M60%60%60%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jun 180
  Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 180/185/190
  90 Day Mean        20 Jun 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  011/012-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%25%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm35%35%25%

All times in UTC

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