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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/1244Z from Region 3341 (S15E48). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 21/2047Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/1229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1222 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jun 176
  Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 175/180/180
  90 Day Mean        21 Jun 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  013/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jun  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  010/012-010/014-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%20%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm35%50%30%

All times in UTC

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