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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/1121Z from Region 3341 (S15E34). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 21/2107Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/0630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/0715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2547 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (25 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jun 173
  Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 180/180/185
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  010/014-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm50%30%20%

All times in UTC

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