Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
19/1725Z from the vicinity of Region 3363 (S21W90). There are currently
8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 18/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 18/2206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
19/1423Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 79 pfu at 18/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1140 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 Jul). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (20
Jul), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (21 Jul) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (22 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 85% | 35% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 189 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 188/188/188 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 016/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 020/028-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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