Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
18/0006Z from Region 3363 (S21W86). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (19 Jul) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 17/2204Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 17/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 18/0121Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 619 pfu at 18/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 936 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (19 Jul, 21 Jul)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (20 Jul). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (19 Jul), are likely to cross
threshold on day two (20 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day three (21 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| Class M | 55% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 95% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 219 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 210/210/210 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 019/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 010/012-018/028-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 50% | 40% |
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