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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 17/1516Z from Region 3372 (N23E01). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 16/1729Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 16/2231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/2155Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 16/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (19 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (18 Jul, 19 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (20 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
Class M50%50%45%
Class X20%20%15%
Proton15%15%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jul 180
  Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 178/174/172
  90 Day Mean        17 Jul 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  013/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jul  019/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  019/026-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm30%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm50%25%20%

All times in UTC

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