Viewing archive of Monday, 17 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/1516Z from Region 3372 (N23E01). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 16/1729Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 16/2231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 16/2155Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 16/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (19 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (20 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (18 Jul, 19 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (20 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 180 Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 178/174/172 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 013/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 019/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 019/026-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 20% |
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