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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 16/1746Z from Region 3363 (S24W59). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 16/1941Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1947Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 16/2037Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17 pfu at 16/0735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Jul). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Jul), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (18 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (19 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
Class M60%60%50%
Class X25%25%15%
Proton25%20%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jul 184
  Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 184/182/178
  90 Day Mean        16 Jul 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  013/018-018/026-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm45%50%25%

All times in UTC

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