Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
12/0915Z from Region 3395 (N13W44). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug,
15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 12/0948Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1031 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15
Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 148 Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 145/140/130 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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