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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 19/0350Z from Region 3341 (S13E62). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 19/1616Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 19/1113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jun 169
  Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        19 Jun 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  012/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  008/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  011/014-011/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm35%35%35%

All times in UTC

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