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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 24/1721Z from Region 3311 (N18W08). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (25 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (26 May, 27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 23/2130Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/1606Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2693 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 May, 26 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (27 May).
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
Class M30%40%45%
Class X05%10%10%
Proton05%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 May 164
  Predicted   25 May-27 May 160/160/165
  90 Day Mean        24 May 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 May  012/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  010/012-013/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%20%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm30%50%25%

All times in UTC

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