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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 23/1213Z from Region 3311 (N18E05). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (24 May, 25 May) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 23/0257Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/0313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1236 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (25 May, 26 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (24 May, 25 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
Class M50%50%55%
Class X10%10%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 May 155
  Predicted   24 May-26 May 155/155/160
  90 Day Mean        23 May 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  017/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 May  011/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  019/021-011/015-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%30%50%

All times in UTC

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