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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/1337Z from Region 3312 (S23E32). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (23 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (24 May, 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 628 km/s at 22/1740Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/1944Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 22/1957Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1267 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 May), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (24 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (25 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
Class M60%50%50%
Class X20%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 May 162
  Predicted   23 May-25 May 155/155/155
  90 Day Mean        22 May 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  019/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 May  019/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  014/018-020/022-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm05%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm20%50%30%

All times in UTC

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