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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 18/1353Z from Region 3336 (S22E17). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 17/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/1710Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3835 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jun, 20 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jun 164
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 160/155/160
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  009/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  011/012-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm35%35%20%

All times in UTC

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