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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/0807Z from Region 3288 (S22E24). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 25/0229Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 24/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/1807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 369 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Apr), unsettled to active levels on day two (27 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (28 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Apr 131
  Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        25 Apr 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  039/072
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  007/008-015/018-019/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%35%
Minor storm05%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%40%30%

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