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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 24/1305Z from Region 3283 (S23W56). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (25 Apr, 26 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (27 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 24/0059Z. Total IMF reached 34 nT at 24/0041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -33 nT at 24/0106Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 23/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 349 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day three (27 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
Class M15%15%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Apr 134
  Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr 135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        24 Apr 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  032/082
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Apr  043/079
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  019/022-007/008-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%15%30%
Minor storm30%05%15%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm75%20%40%

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