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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 04/1551Z from Region 2936 (N17W75). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (05 Feb, 06 Feb) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 04/0029Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04/0707Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 04/1640Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4014 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (05 Feb, 06 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
Class M35%35%15%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Feb 130
  Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 132/128/122
  90 Day Mean        04 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  018/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Feb  020/029
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  015/018-014/016-011/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm60%40%40%

All times in UTC

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