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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 02/2324Z from Region 2960 (S21E81). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 02/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/1909Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1941Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 417 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Mar 111
  Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 111/110/108
  90 Day Mean        03 Mar 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Mar  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  007/008-011/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%40%40%

All times in UTC

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