Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/2210Z from Region 2924 (S31E06). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 08/2024Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 08/1827Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 08/1848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2655 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jan), unsettled to active
levels on day two (10 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(11 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 102 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 011/012-011/014-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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