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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 07/2210Z from Region 2924 (S31E06). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 08/2024Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 08/1827Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 08/1848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2655 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (10 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jan 102
  Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        08 Jan 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jan  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  011/012-011/014-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%20%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%50%30%

All times in UTC

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