Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 February 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/1117Z from Region 2936 (N17W62). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 03/1319Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 03/0933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 03/0853Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 370 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Feb 127
  Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 128/130/125
  90 Day Mean        03 Feb 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Feb  026/034
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  011/012-016/020-012/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm55%65%65%

All times in UTC

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