Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
04/2157Z from Region 2936 (N17W75). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Feb,
07 Feb, 08 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 05/1938Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 05/0740Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/0751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2774 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (06 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (07 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (08
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 126 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 112/120/120 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 018/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 014/016-011/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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