Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 November 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/0301Z from Region 2891 (N16W13). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 645 km/s at 02/1531Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 01/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/2342Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 01/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 289 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Nov), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (04 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (05 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
Class M30%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton15%15%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Nov 097
  Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 097/097/095
  90 Day Mean        02 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Nov  014/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  011/014-021/030-017/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%45%35%
Minor storm35%35%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm70%75%55%

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