Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 November 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (04 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 773 km/s at 03/2059Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at 03/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 03/2033Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at 03/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 856 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Nov), unsettled to active levels on day two (05 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Nov 089
  Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  012/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  024/035-017/022-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm45%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm75%55%55%

All times in UTC

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