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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 07/0246Z from Region 2882 (N17E28). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 335 km/s at 07/0502Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/0137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/1056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Oct 086
  Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 086/086/084
  90 Day Mean        07 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Oct  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  008/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm25%25%20%

All times in UTC

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