Viewing archive of Friday, 10 September 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 10/0730Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1945Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 306 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (13 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Sep 096
  Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep 094/092/092
  90 Day Mean        10 Sep 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  007/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Sep  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  014/014-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%25%20%

All times in UTC

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