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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 06/0622Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 06/1625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/1450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 185 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Oct 085
  Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        06 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Oct  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm20%25%25%

All times in UTC

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