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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (06 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 04/2203Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1830Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/1324Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 248 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Oct, 08 Oct) and quiet levels on day two (07 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Oct 082
  Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct 084/084/084
  90 Day Mean        05 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Oct  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  007/008-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm30%20%30%
Major-severe storm25%20%25%

All times in UTC

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