Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 September 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 08/1730Z from Region 2866 (S18E07). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 08/1028Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 08/0850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 277 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Sep 100
  Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep 100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        08 Sep 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Sep  014/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%20%

All times in UTC

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