Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 September 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 09/0831Z from Region 2866 (S18W06). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 09/0808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 240 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Sep 100
  Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 100/100/098
  90 Day Mean        09 Sep 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  014/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Sep  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%25%25%

All times in UTC

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