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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 02 1605 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 01/0145Z from Region 2887 (S27W64). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 31/2206Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 01/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 01/2049Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 01/0935Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 285 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Nov, 03 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Nov 98
  Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 98/98/98
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Nov  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  012/010-005/007-030/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%45%
Minor storm10%01%35%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%05%
Minor storm20%20%50%
Major-severe storm20%25%75%

All times in UTC

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