Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
31/0706Z from Region 2891 (N16E15). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov,
03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 31/1905Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 31/1103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 31/1136Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 11 pfu at 30/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (03 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 103 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 103/102/100 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 024/042 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 013/020-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 25% | 10% |
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