Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 November 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 27/0922Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/1122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 869 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (30 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Nov 092
  Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 090/090/092
  90 Day Mean        27 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Nov  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  016/018-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%15%10%
Minor storm25%05%01%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm65%25%10%

All times in UTC

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