Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/0315Z from Region 2891 (N16E29). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov,
02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 378 km/s at 30/1951Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
30/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
30/2053Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 20 pfu at 29/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 107 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 106/106/104 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 011/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 028/044-011/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 40% | 15% |
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