Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/0722Z from Region 2877 (S21W93). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Oct,
05 Oct, 06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 442 km/s at 03/0335Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/2020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 086 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
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