Viewing archive of Friday, 29 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/0242Z from Region 2891 (N17E41). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31
Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 324 km/s at 29/2012Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
29/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/2012Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 28 pfu at 29/0250Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 28/2115Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 242 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (30 Oct), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet to active levels on
day three (01 Nov). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(30 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three
(31 Oct, 01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 108 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 108/106/106 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 023/045-028/044-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 85% | 40% |
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