Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
28/1535Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30
Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 366 km/s at 27/2120Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
28/1629Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
28/1621Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 22 pfu at 28/1950Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 28/1815Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 228 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Oct), quiet to severe
storm levels on day two (30 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (31 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (29
Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (30 Oct) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (31 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 99% | 40% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 112 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 113/114/114 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 006/005-038/040-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 40% |
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