Viewing archive of Monday, 29 November 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 29/0515Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/2326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/0123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 214 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Nov 090
  Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 092/092/090
  90 Day Mean        29 Nov 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Nov  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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