Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 September 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 23/1621Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1247 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (26 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Sep 090
  Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep 090/092/095
  90 Day Mean        23 Sep 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  011/015-007/008-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%45%
Minor storm10%15%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm40%50%75%

All times in UTC

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