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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 22/1157Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/2317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/2315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 089
  Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  011/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  008/012-007/008-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%35%
Minor storm10%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%25%50%

All times in UTC

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