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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 24/0701Z from Region 2871 (S28E01). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 24/0830Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/0635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (26 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (27 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Sep 088
  Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 088/086/082
  90 Day Mean        24 Sep 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  009/010-011/018-020/028

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%30%
Minor storm10%35%40%
Major-severe storm01%10%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm35%70%75%

All times in UTC

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