Viewing archive of Friday, 27 August 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 26/2322Z from Region 2860 (S30E14). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 27/1906Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 27/1315Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 27/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Aug 090
  Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug 090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        27 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Aug  018/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  012/015-011/018-022/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm25%35%40%
Major-severe storm05%20%25%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm65%75%80%

All times in UTC

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