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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 20/2034Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/1953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 Oct, 22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Oct 076
  Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 076/076/080
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  009/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm30%30%20%

All times in UTC

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