Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 January 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 23/2045Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/1636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/1904Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (25 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jan 072
  Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        23 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  018/024-013/018-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%20%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm60%50%30%

All times in UTC

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