Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 December 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Dec 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 27/2007Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/2009Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 Dec, 30 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Dec 069
  Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        27 Dec 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Dec  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  007/008-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%40%25%

All times in UTC

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